The WTA Warsaw tournament has already featured spectacular tennis, and the action continues Thursday at the competition.
I’ve found betting value for two matches, including a showdown between Viktorija Golubic and Kristina Mladenovic.
So, check out my best bets and full breakdowns below.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
5 a.m. ET
Golubic defeated Arianne Hartono in a 6-4, 5-7, 6-3 win to advance to the Round of 16 at the tournament. Golubic won 55% of her return points in the match and generated 16 break points, breaking on eight occasions. However, Golubic only won 50% of her service points.
Golubic has a solid 178-144 record on clay in her career, although she’s just 3-5 this season. The Swiss has excellent variety, whether it be her backhand slice, angles or drop shots.
And Golubic can play attacking tennis as well, controlling the baseline with her forehand and ripping through the court with her one-handed backhand. In addition, Golubic’s rally tolerance is usually quite good, although she can break down when facing powerful opponents.
Kristina Mladenovic came back from a set down to beat Anna Bondar in 1-6, 7-5, 7-6 (8) win in a first-round meeting that took two days to complete. Mladenovic was all over her second serve, winning 59% of those points and breaking five times. Like Golubic, Mladenovic’s serve was a concern. She won 52% of her service points, faced 19 break points and double-faulted 21 times.
Mladenovic ended a six-match losing streak by beating Bondar. She’s now a respectable 113-95 on clay as a professional, but just 8-10 on the season. Mladenovic, with six doubles Majors, is also very good at the net.
However, Mladenovic has been hit-or-miss from the baseline, lacking the rally tolerance and controlled aggression needed to consistently win at this level. Nevertheless, becuase Bondar struggled with her depth, this allowed Mladenovic to tee off.
Neither player is serving well in Warsaw, although Mladenovic double faulting 21 times is certainly concerning. If Mladenovic double faults close to that many times against Golubic, the Swiss won’t let her get away with it.
From the baseline, Golubic is steadier and possesses a more consistent game than the erratic Frenchwoman. She also will get better depth on her groundstrokes than Bondar did and not allow Mladenovic to easily attack.
Pick: Golubic -3.5 Games (-125 via PointsBet)
6:30 a.m. ET
Caroline Garcia earned a 7-5, 6-4 win against Misaki Doi to advance to the Round of 16. Garcia won 74% of her first-serve points, only getting broken twice. On return, Garcia attacked Doi’s second serve well, winning 56% of those return points. On the other hand, Garcia’s own second serve was not up to par, as she only won 45% of those points.
Garcia is now 120-83 on clay in her career and 7-3 on the season, including a trip to the Palermo quarterfinal round last week. Garcia goes huge on her first serve and tries to play first-strike tennis from the baseline. While she can overwhelm some of her opponents with pace, especially from the forehand wing, the unforced errors can mount at times.
Elisabetta Cocciaretto defeated Martyna Kubka by a 6-2, 6-3 margin in the first round. Despite going just five of 12 on her second-serve points, Cocciaretto shined with her first serve, winning 76% of those points and only getting broken once. On return, Cocciaretto won 53% of her first-serve points.
Cocciaretto has an impressive 94-43 professional record on the dirt, which includes going 28-9 in 2022. Cocciaretto gets consistent depth from the baseline and has a heavy forehand that she uses to dictate play. She’s also fast and anticipates her opponents’ next shot well. There are times, however, when Cocciaretto can get pushed into more defensive positions than she wants.
Garcia will look to serve huge and attack when she gets the chance. However, Cocciaretto has the rally tolerance and depth to make it difficult for Garcia to hit through her, which will force her to press on her groundstrokes.
These two played last week in Palermo, with Garcia earning 0-6, 6-3, 6-4 win. That was a streaky match, as Garcia only won six of 21 service points and two of 14 return points in the opening set before totally turning the match around.
I don’t trust Garcia to be consistent enough to cover this spread.
Pick: Cocciaretto +2.5 Games (-114 via FanDuel)
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