The Citi Open continues with more exciting matches on Wednesday for us to enjoy.
I’ve found betting value for two of Wednesday’s matches, and I’ll provide my best bets and full breakdowns below.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Jessica Pegula (-365) vs. Daria Saville (+285)
1:30 p.m. ET
Jessica Pegula played well in defeating Hailey Baptiste 6-2, 6-2. Pegula won 72% of her service points — including 78% of her first serves — and did not face a break point. Pegula also won 52% of her return points, breaking Baptiste on four occasions.
She was the fitter player and much steadier from the baseline.
Pegula understands how to play on hard courts, as she has a 208-124 record in her career and has gone 13-8 this season. Pegula gets consistent depth on her groundstrokes, moves around the court well and knows the right time within a point to pull the trigger.
Pegula, a doubles finalist at Roland Garros this season, is also very competent at the net.
It is important to note, however, that players can rush Pegula at times with their power.
Daria Saville survived a brutal first-round match against Mirjam Bjorklund, winning 3-6, 7-5, 7-6(4). Saville won 79% of her first-serve points and she won 41% Bjorklund’s first-serve points.
However, Saville did hit 12 double faults in the match and won only 42% of her second-serve points. The Aussie has won under 50% of her second serves in eight of her last nine matches across three surfaces.
Saville is strong on hard courts, going 199-139 overall, including a 14-7 record this season. She is very consistent from the baseline and gets good depth on her groundstrokes. Saville has a heavy forehand that she places well around the court and she’s not afraid to use her variety during rallies.
On the other hand, the Aussie’s game does lack power.
Pegula has the control, movement and endurance to hang with Saville in long rallies. In addition, she has significantly more power than Saville, so when the right time comes in a rally, Pegula can ramp up the pace of her groundstrokes in a way that Saville cannot.
The American will also take advantage of Saville’s weaker second serve, hitting with controlled aggression on her second-serve return.
When looking at Elo ratings, Pegula’s overall Elo is 242.7 points better than Saville’s and her hard-court Elo is 170.3 points better than the Aussie’s.
Pick: Saville to NOT Win a Set (-122 via FanDuel)
Kaia Kanepi (-223) vs. Lin Zhu (+170)
4:30 p.m. ET
Kaia Kanepi started off Washington strong, beating Greet Minnen 6-3, 6-3 in the first round.
Kanepi was all over the Minnen serve, winning 54% of her return points, which includes 65% Minnen’s second-serve points. This allowed Kanepi to break on five occasions. However, on her own serve, the Estonian was only broken twice.
Kanepi plays well on hard courts, with a 291-176 record as a professional. This season, Kanepi has played excellent tennis, going 21-11 overall and 10-4 on hard courts.
She has a big first serve and plays with controlled aggression from the baseline, taking the racquet out of opponents’ hands with her combination of placement and pace.
However, Kanepi does not have good movement.
Lin Zhu played solid tennis in her 6-4, 6-3 victory over Harriet Dart. Zhu won 51% of her return points and broke serve six times. Zhu was particularly effective on Dart’s second serve, winning 63% of her second-serve return points.
With that said, Zhu only served 49% of her first serves into play.
Zhu has had a lot of success on hard courts in her career, with a 335-196 record. This season, Zhu is 22-10 on hard courts, including 6-3 since Wimbledon on hard, although many of those matches were in ITF events.
Zhu tries to play with controlled aggression, but doesn’t have overwhelming power and can get pushed around at times.
Kanepi has the better serve, and while she has spurts of inconsistency, she will dominate from the baseline against Zhu. Kanepi has the power to direct play and force Zhu into defensive positions in the court.
It was also worrying to see Zhu struggle with her first-serve percentage, as Kanepi will punish Zhu’s second serves.
When looking at Elo ratings, Kanepi’s overall Elo is 268.6 points better than Zhu’s and her hard-court Elo is 233.9 points better.
Pick: Kanepi -3.5 Games (-121 via PointsBet)