|Time||8 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.|
The Golden State Warriors head to Memphis to take on the Grizzlies as both teams are on the second game of a back-to-back set. The Warriors lost on the road in Atlanta while the Grizzlies pulled out an overtime win in San Antonio.
Can the Warriors snap their two-game losing streak or will they continue to struggle on the road? Let’s break down this exciting Western Conference matchup between the Warriors and Grizzlies.
The Warriors were without Draymond Green yesterday when he served his one-game suspension due to him hitting his technical foul limit. They continue to be without Andrew Wiggins (personal), Andre Iguodala (wrist), and Gary Payton II (adductor) but given the importance of this game I would be shocked if Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson sat due to rest.
The Warriors have been abysmal on the road as just 9-26 against the spread and 7-28 straight up. They have struggled to find any rhythm away from home, but they have been a top-10 team overall since the All-Star break with a +2.5 Point Differential across 13 games.
One of the struggles with watching the Warriors this season is that they have elite lineups and then abysmal lineups. There is little in between or margin for error. One strength is the current starting lineup: Curry, Donte DiVincenzo, Thompson, Green, and Looney have a +11.7 Point Differential and allow their opponents to score just 104.8 points per 100 possessions.
This is an elite lineup and one the Warriors should consider for an extended run as they slide down the Western Conference standings.
The Grizzlies remain without Ja Morant who is serving an eight-game suspension (of note, the suspension is retroactive so he is eligible to return against the Mavericks on Monday). The Grizzlies will also miss Brandon Clarke today, and although he’s been out for a bit with a season-ending ACL injury, I think his versatility will be particularly missed tonight.
The Grizzlies have played well without Morant this season, but over their past seven games without him, they are 4-3 with a +1.2 Point Differential. However, these stats are a bit inflated — the victories are two games against the Mavericks without Kyrie Irving or Luka Doncic, the Spurs, and of course, the one game against the Warriors where they jumped out to a 20-point first quarter lead.
One player the Grizzlies leaned on in that game was Santi Aldama — he played 30 minutes and recorded 15 points and seven rebounds. That was significantly more minutes than he traditionally plays, but his versatility may be leaned on yet again without Brandon Clarke. I’d consider his points + rebound prop, which should be around 15.5.
The Warriors need this game much more than the Grizzlies, and while there’s something to be said about being in a position where you “need” a game does not instill confidence, this Warriors team has been waiting to flip a switch all year. There’s bad blood from the Conference Finals last season, and I expect the Warriors to bounce back after their head-to-head loss a few days ago.
The Grizzlies’ recent form is inflated a bit due to their recent schedule and opponent injury luck. Now with the Grizzlies coming off an overtime victory on the road, their home-court advantage is not as significant and I would not be surprised if their rotations were a bit deeper today.
I’ll grab the points with the Warriors on the road; as of the time of writing, BetMGM has the best line with the Warriors priced at +2.5.
Pick: Warriors +2.5 — Down to +2
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