The TCU Horned Frogs will look to pull off the upset when they take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in this West Regional matchup.
The Horned Frogs are coming off a stunning victory over the Sun Devils, where they were trailing for the majority of the ball game.
Gonzaga will look to continue to build momentum in this spot after it comfortably took care of business against Grand Canyon.
If you like offense, this is the game for you, as both of these teams will be flying up and down the court all night long.
Will this be a good spot to take an over? Or was this number set too high by the market? Let’s find out by breaking down both of these squads.
The Horned Frogs missed Eddie Lampkin Jr. on Friday, as their offense looked quite stagnant at times.
Luckily for them, Mike Miles Jr. and JaKobe Coles took over late in the game, specifically Coles, who hit the game winner with seconds remaining.
However, they will be facing a Gonzaga offense that’s capable of blowing any team out of the gym, so to say their offense needs to be clicking is an understatement.
I do think they will have some success here, and their poor shooting ability from behind the arc may get bolstered in this spot.
The reason I say that is because Gonzaga is not particularly great at defending the 3. The Horned Frogs are one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the nation, but they have a great opportunity to have better success in this matchup.
TCU also does a terrific job of protecting the basketball on offense, and it also gets to the free-throw line early and often.
This could be huge in this matchup, considering Gonzaga is 311th in bench minutes. The Horned Frogs should have ample opportunities to put up points here.
As I already spoke about, this Bulldogs’ offense is an electric factory. This is the No. 1 offense in Adjusted Efficiency, according to KenPom, and they find themselves ranking inside the top 10 in the majority of offensive categories.
As explosive as Gonzaga is on offense, it has a tough task against this stingy TCU defense. The Horned Frogs do a fantastic job at guarding behind the arc, as they’re inside the top 30 in opposing 3PT%.
The good news for the Zags is that they are the No. 1 team in 2PT shooting%, which is an area that the TCU defense isn’t too elite in. They also do a fantastic job at protecting the basketball, and they rarely get any shots blocked.
I expect the Zags’ offense to do the heavy lifting here, considering their defense may not get many stops in this matchup.
I think we are in for an electric back-and-forth affair.
If the breakdown wasn’t clear enough, I think this is a great spot to take the Over.
Both teams will be able to find some success, and I especially think the Zags will eat inside all night long. If TCU had Lampkin for this matchup, I may have approached this handicap a bit differently.
If I had to take a side, I would lean TCU with the points since I illustrated the success both offenses should have. But I’d much rather take the safer approach.
It’s a bit scary taking an over with a total this high, but there’s no way I see this matchup turning into a grinder. KenPom also makes this total 158, so it’s an added bonus that it’s currently sitting at 156.5. I could also see the total dipping a bit with public money already flooding in on the under.
Take the over with confidence, and watch both of these offensive units get cooking early.
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