We are cruising into the Motor City with good vibes after cashing in on Cam Davis at 160-1 outright odds at the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Channeling a similar formula, the best putters in the field – particular on Poa-blended greens – have seen the best correlation with success in these easy scoring conditions. It may lack historical significance of the other tournaments on the schedule, but there’s enough talent in the field to have me excited to watch my Rocket Mortgage Classic bets in action.
Not expecting much of a premium needed from tee-to-green at Detroit Golf Club, we should have another bona fide birdie fest putting contest in store. With weather appearing to be fairly tame for this week, and some talented names in the field, I’m expecting some very low scoring ahead, and will go with a winning score prediction of -22. Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
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As a baseline pre-requisite this week, I’ve taken a stance again weak putters. We have only seen above-average putters rise to the top on these undulated Donald Ross greens over the first three iterations of the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and we’ve seen elite putters thrive especially. Beyond top-tier putting, we’ve also seen bombers rise to the top as well, as the 2020 finish between Bryson DeChambeau and Matthew Wolff proved. So in the end I constructed a card around players who are either elite in driving distance or putting, with an added bonus if they excel on approach with their short irons and wedges.
From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual as we just about close out the 2022 season.
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My Bet: +2200
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I saw myself fading the top of the board this week and building out a longer card for what’s expected to be a putting contest with a ton of variance. But as the week went on, I talked myself out of most of the mid to long range players on the odds board, which left just enough room to squeeze in Cameron Young at drifted odds.
I like Cameron Young, and I’d be happy to root him on this week and will him to his first career PGA TOUR victory. Putting is important at Detroit Golf Club, but distance can give you a significant leg up too, as Bryson DeChambeau displayed in 2020. Young has four T3 finishes in his last seven starts, including a MC at the Scottish Open which Young cited jet lag as the culprit for. Now well-rested for two weeks since his runner up finish at The Open, Young should remain motivated to pick up his elusive first win here against a beatable field.
My Bet: +4200
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I was hoping for longer odds, but this is a very appropriate number on McCarthy who is clicking in all the areas you’d hope to see leading into a putting contest like the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He’s finished top-10 in three of his last four starts between the John Deere Classic, the Memorial, and the U.S. Open. Remarkably, he hasn’t lost strokes putting since his first start of 2022 at the Sony Open. McCarthy is top-3 in SG: P L36, Poa, and 5-10 ft, which makes him emphatically the No. 1 weighted putter in this field. Considering he’s gained strokes on approach in five of his last six starts, I’ll take my chances on McCarthy in a putting contest.
My Bet: +6000
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Another player with trending results who I’ll gladly roll the dice on in a putting contest is my spotlight player of the week, Mark Hubbard. Hubbard enters this week on the heels of back to back top-5 finishes at the Barbasol and Barracuda Championship. He joins Max Homa as the only other player to rank top-10 in both SG: APP and SG: P over the last 36 rounds, which have proven to be the two most basic indicators for success at this event. He ranked No. 3 overall in my model this week, and it seems there’s no better time or place for Hubbard to pick up his first career PGA TOUR win than right here, right now.
My Bet: +6500
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I am a fool to continually go back to the Russell Henley outright market, but at least at 65-1 odds this week, it hasn’t exactly compromised the rest of my card. With 40% of approaches coming from inside 150 yards this week, the top wedge players should be able to separate themselves and Henley is in an elite class of his own with his wedge play compared to the rest of this field. He rated out No. 2 overall in my model this week, ranking top-10 in SG: APP, Comp Course History, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Par-5 Scoring, Opportunities Gained, and Prox <150 Yards. The recent results in Majors haven’t been inspiring, but the Rocket Mortgage Classic is no Major, so if he can continue to dial in his wedges, he’s in a great buy low spot.
My Bet: +8000
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Like Cameron Young, I’m drawn to Pendrith for his elite driving distance and above-average long term putting stats. I have plenty of exposure to elite putters on my betting card, so if bombers proceed to over-power this course in ways that the shorter plodders cannot, Pendrith’s skillsets should act as a nice complement. He’s finished top-15 in each of his first two starts post-injury, and looks poised to close the season out strong before the FedEx Cup Playoffs begin.
My Bet: +8000
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Matt Kuchar makes his Rocket Mortgage Classic debut this week, but I have no concerns about the veteran adapting to this course quickly. Players like Kevin Kisner, Webb Simpson, and Troy Merritt have proven that a repeated formula of fairways, greens, and birdie putts will work at Detroit Golf Club, and that is what Kuchar does best. He ranks No. 2 behind Denny McCarthy in total weighted putting, and additional top-10 ranks in Comp Course History, SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions), Bogey Avoidance, and Par-4 Scoring have risen him up to No. 15 in my model this week, making for a nice bargain at 80-1 odds.
My Bet: +100000
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That’s not a typo, I have the 2017 RBC Heritage champion on my card at 1000-1 odds. He is coming off of his worst performance of the year at the 3M Open, but he still has a ceiling as a top-5 wedge player in this field from inside 150 yards, so why not!
More potential Rocket Mortgage Classic Longshots
My Bet: +6600
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It is tradition to pair up Russell Henley outright exposure with a complementary FRL bet as well, as he’s much less likely to inflict pain on us on Thursdays than Sundays. Despite the shaky stretch at Majors, he’s always thrived in easy scoring conditions, and his long term form should suit Detroit Golf Club well.
My Bet: +7500
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It’s an unfinished business type of week for Troy Merritt who returns to the Rocket Mortgage Classic a year after falling just short to Cam Davis in a playoff. Merritt’s combination of strong irons and streaky putting always make for an appealing FRL consideration, especially on a course he’s already found recent success on.
My Bet: +9000
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Like Merritt, it’s usually a good idea to try your luck on Patrick Rodgers in the FRL market. That’s especially true on more forgiving layouts that allow players to frequently pull driver and get away with some wayward tee shots. Rodgers has gained 6+ strokes putting in two of his last four starts, and he’ll need to continue to channel that hot putter to make a run at the top of the leaderboard this Thursday.
My Bet: +11000
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We are officially calling for a heat check on Chesson Hadley after posting his third top-10 in four starts at last week’s 3M Open. Always a reliable putter, Hadley is a regular on the FRL card, and this seems like a bargain price given the trending form down the closing stretch of the season.
My Bet: +12500
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Peter Malnati is always a consideration at long odds in a putting contest. He now enters off the best ball striking performance of his career at the 3M Open, where he finished T11. Malnati is best on Poa greens, and is best suited for open courses like Detroit Golf Club which reward aggressive birdie makers.
My Bet: +250
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Cameron Young let’s you know immediately whether you’ve made the right decision to play or fade him. Over his last 12 starts, he’s finished top-15 seven times and 60th-or-worse the other five. So, if he’s on, he won’t waste your time in leaderboard purgatory. I don’t often dip my toe in the T10 market, but with four T3 finishes over his last seven starts on drastically different layouts, it would seem more likely than not that Young finds himself in contention yet again at the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
My Bet: +300
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At the 3M Open, I went on a limb to call Doug Ghim T20 at +320 odds my conviction bet of the week. That worked out for us last week, and I have a similar inclination about Matt Kuchar in this spot. It seems the lack of prior course history is factored into this price, despite that not playing much of a factor in predicting success at this event historically. I expect Kuchar to remain level to the field from a ball striking perspective, and his recent form has given us every indication he should continue to excel with his short game. Kuchar has made eight consecutive cuts with four top-20 finishes over that span.
My Bet: +300
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Technically, Taylor Pendrith is riding a streak of three consecutive top-20 finishes into this event. As a caveat, that streak spans to THE PLAYERS in March as he’s sustained a four month layoff due to injury in-between, but he looks healthy now, and a course that sets up ample drivers, wedges, and birdie opportunities is exactly the set up Pendrith should thrive in.
My Bet: +425
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I will always consider playing Patrick Rodgers in a birdie fest putting content that rewards above-average driving distance. He narrowly missed my outright betting card, but with six top-35 finishes over his last eight starts, the form is in a great place for the discounted odds.
It would be smart to play one of the clear top-5 favorites in the field this week with so few weeks remaining in One And Done, as you really can’t go wrong with any of them. Unfortunately, I’ve used all five already, so looking at the next batch of options, I have to say I’m most encouraged by Hubbard’s prospects. He thrives in birdie fests and easy scoring conditions, and his combination of elite irons and putting don’t seem to be stopping any time soon.
If not Hubbard, I would also consider Kevin Kisner, Denny McCarthy, or Cameron Young.
That’ll do it for my 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Sunday for the 2022 Wyndham Championship preview.
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