The Premier League is back after the international break with some tantalizing fixtures, headlined by Manchester City vs Liverpool to kick off the weekend slate on Saturday at 7:30 am ET.

BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.

Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way. They’ll also provide their individual model projections for the games.

If you’d like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.

Cunningham’s Model Projections

Dabbundo’s Model Projections

Nottingham Forest vs Wolves

Dabbundo: There’s not a big enough gap in the true quality of these two teams to warrant Wolves being a favorite on the road at the City Ground. Wolves have just two wins away from home all season — at Everton and Southampton. The team hasn’t really played noticeably better under Julen Lopategui. They have the same major attacking flaws that stem from a lack of talent that existed under Bruno Lage before him.

There’s a major gap between Forest’s performances home and away this season. You could make a case that the Trees have a larger than average home field advantage, given that they have a positive goal difference at home (+1) compared to -28 in 13 away matches.

One of the biggest upgrades going from Dean Henderson to Keylor Navas in goal is the improved shot stopping from attempts from outside the penalty area. Henderson let way too many goals in from distance — especially early in the season. Navas is a better shot stopper and that’s a key against a Wolves side that has the longest average shot distance in the PL.

If you take out penalties, Forest’s aggregate xG difference is about 0.1 per 90 worse than Wolves. Once you factor in home field advantage, Steve Cooper’s side should be a small favorite. The newfound market respect for Wolves under Lopategui is unfounded in my view and I’d play against it on Forest at any dog price.

Pick: Nottingham Forest – Draw No Bet (+105 via DraftKings)

Arsenal vs Leeds United

Dabbundo: Arsenal’s attack will be bolstered by the full return of Gabriel Jesus, who should make their attack even more fluid and free flowing than it was when Eddie Nketiah led the line as his replacement. But defensive regression still looms for Arsenal and the market is overpricing the true quality of the unit and underrating Leeds United.

The league leaders will once again be without breakout star centerback William Saliba. The defense will also be without Takehiro Tomiyasu, one of the best passers in the back line. That’s a major key in trying to play through Leeds’ pressure and could lead to more high turnovers and chances for the Peacocks.

Leeds were more successful than almost every other team at disrupting Arsenal’s possession structure in the first meeting at Elland Road. Arsenal won the match 1-0, but were outshot 15-9 and out-created 1.8-0.5 in terms of xG.

The Peacocks have an average to even above average attack by almost every metric from xG to shots to box entries. There’s more positive regression coming for this group.

Pick: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-103 via BetRivers)

Newcastle vs Manchester United

Cunningham: This is a rematch of the League Cup final, but this time Manchester United will be without Casemiro, who is their most important player. With him in the lineup, Manchester United is only allowing 1.11 xG per 90 minutes, without him, they’re allowing 1.68.

The matches they’ve played without him have been against Brighton, Brentford and Liverpool at the beginning of the season when Manchester United kept getting dismantled in transition. Since then, the biggest match that he’s missed was the 3-2 loss to Arsenal on the road when Manchester United conceded 3.1 xG.

Newcastle have been one of the best home teams in the Premier League this season with a +13.1 xGD in 13 matches, with the loss to Liverpool as their only blemish. 

I have Newcastle’s draw no bet line projected at -175, so I think there is tremendous value on the current line of -134 at FanDuel. 

Pick: Newcastle – Draw No Bet (-134)

Everton vs Tottenham

Cunningham: Antonio Conte is gone, which means Christian Stellini will be in charge for the remainder of the season in London.

Things were getting stale under Conte and the offense has suffered with his obsession of playing an incredibly direct counterattacking style. Things likely aren’t going to change drastically under Stellini, but he has won his three matches in charge thus far.

Tottenham also face a nice stylistic matchup with this Everton defense. How do Tottenham generate most of their offense? It’s getting the ball out wide to their full backs and swinging in a ton of crosses. Spurs lead the Premier League in crosses completed into the penalty area, while Everton are the worst team in the Premier League at defending crosses. Tottenham also have scored the most goals off of set pieces, while Everton are 12th in xG allowed per set piece. 

Spurs’ defense has been just slightly above average this season, ranking seventh in npxG allowed. It’s a defense that will allow you to come into its final third but do an elite job at preventing you from getting into the penalty area.

However, if teams like Nottingham Forest and Southampton were able to play very direct and have success going forward, who says an Everton team that is due for positive offensive regression can’t find the back of the net? 

I have 2.77 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+115) 

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