LIV Golf starts up this week, and with players mixing in from about seven different tours, this event can provide an option for bettors to find an edge on golfers that the books don’t see very often.
The Centurion Club is set to play at 7,047 yards for a par 70. We haven’t seen the course often. It was used a couple times for the GolfSixes team event won in 2017 by Lucas Bjerregaard and Thorbjorn Olesen, and then again in 2018, with Paul Dunne and Gavin Moynihan coming out on top.
The team format — and that group of winners — doesn’t really yield too much info on what style will best suit the course. But with its length, the shorter hitters are definitely in play this week, and the par 5s should easily be reachable for everyone with a good drive.
I would expect fairly easy scoring conditions, unless the weather gets tough this week.
It doesn’t seem like this event is really set up for the players to have to grind, especially with a major coming next week. Something in the 12-to-15-under par range for 54 holes seems in play.
Dustin Johnson opens at the top of the board at +400, and he really hasn’t played well at all for two months. If he shows up with his A-game, then he’s the class of the field. But he hasn’t been close to that for awhile now, and that could open up some value down the board.
Talor Gooch is next in line at +900, and he’s had a fairly solid season on the PGA TOUR this year.
At this type of price though, I’d want to see a little more consistency in his game. He’s had plenty of weeks where the driver or irons just weren’t clicking, and he’s not good enough overall to overcome a week like that even in this field.
Louis Oosthuizen is right behind at +1000, and he’s in the same boat as DJ. He could cruise if his game is dialed in, but he hasn’t even been close to that this season.
Kevin Na and Sergio Garcia close out the top range here at +1200. Of the two, Na has probably been playing the best and would be where I’d lean in this range.
The price doesn’t seem like much, but we’ve got a 48-player field, with about 20 players who represent little competition for the top guys under most circumstances.
The course doesn’t require any real length off the tee, so if Na can get the driver in play — which has been hit and miss this year — the rest of his game is set up well here.
Sergio, on the other hand, hasn’t been close to good with his irons all year, so I’d pass there.
In this range, Sam Horsfield and Bernd Wiesberger catch my eye.
Horsfield won three weeks ago on the DP World Tour and finished inside the top-25 on five occasions. But it’s Bernd who will draw my action at the bigger number of +2000 on Superbook.
Tee-to-green, Wiesberger has been one of the best players in Europe this year. If it wasn’t for a really bad putter, he’d likely already have a win to his name this season.
When he’s stepped up to the PGA TOUR level, the ball striking carried over, with 30th- and 33rd-place finishes at the PGA Championship and Valspar.
If the putter finally shows up, he’s my pick to win this event.
Just below them, I’d look at Adrian Otaegui at +4000 on DraftKings. Otaegui has been putting together good results for a few months now on the DP World Tour. He was the runner-up in Spain in an event Pablo Larrazabal needed to set a course record to knock him off.
Otaegui’s short game is usually solid, and he’s coming off a week in Germany where he finished ninth in strokes gained tee-to-green.
There’s not much to pick from in this range — the field is under 50 players — but we’ll take a look here at Jinichiro Kozuma at 150-1 on Hard Rock.
Kozuma has been boom-or-bust in Asia this year, as he has a win and two other top-10s, but no other finish better than 60th. He played the Zozo last year and gained ground in that field to finish 35th.
He also nearly made the cut at the PGA. He gained over a stroke per round with the approach in that field, but the driver wasn’t up to par to get to the weekend.
On a course like this where the iron game should be the deciding factor, he’s a guy I’d look to for a surprise result.
The LIV Card
- Bernd Wiesberger +2000
- Adrian Otaegui +4000
- Jinichiro Kozuma +15000