The Celtics kept the series mildly interesting with a Game 4 win to avoid the sweep. With one more victory, they can really get the comeback ball rolling, so there is a lot of intrigue with tonight’s Heat-Celtics matchup. And wherever there is intrigue, we will follow it by turning to NBA Bet Pro to find high-EV NBA player props. Here we will break down the top 3 best props on NBA Bet Pro, but do note that there are 20 other +EV plays in the model. Want to find out what they are? Sign up now and take advantage of Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
3. Jayson Tatum Under 5.5 Assists (-135, DraftKings)
Even with Tatum boosting his assist average slightly in the playoffs (up to 5.0 from 4.6 in the regular season), this 5.5 line is a little high. Tatum has gotten six or more assists in seven of 17 games in the postseason, and with this game having a fairly low total of around 215, no one on Boston other than Marcus Smart is seeing much of an assist projection. Tatum is getting just 4.6 in the NBA Bet Pro model at the moment.
With Jaylen Brown and Malcolm Brogdon shooting like garbage, the best bet is that Tatum’s assist options are going to be diminished. The most likely scenario is Tatum taking over offensively to keep the Celtics in the game as they face elimination. As a result, the under on 5.5 assists has a 61% expected win rate.
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2. Al Horford Under 6.5 Rebounds (-140, PointsBet)
Horford is going to play a lot, like he has all postseason, but there are some circumstances suggesting his rebound total could take a hit. For one, Miami is without Gabe Vincent. As a result, the Heat are probably going to play Caleb Martin even more, and Martin projects for 5.7 rebounds in 34.9 minutes. He had been in the high 20s, low 30 prior to Vincent’s injury.
But more importantly, NBA Bet Pro is projecting a low-pace game, as there is not a single +EV over prop on rebounds right now. The expectation is fewer shots going up in a grind-it-out Game 5, as that is Miami’s preferred style. That is leading to Horford getting a projection of just 5.6 boards and a 61% win expectancy on under 6.5.
1. Kyle Lowry Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (+100, DraftKings)
Despite the lack of appeal on rebound overs on today’s slate, there is considerable value on Lowry’s points + rebounds + assists (PRA). Lowry is the most obvious beneficiary of Vincent’s absence since they essentially share the same position. Vincent was playing 35 to 40 minutes this series, while Lowry was riding the wave between 17 and 28 minutes. Tonight he projects for a safe 34.7, and he will also likely take on the handful of assists and rebounds and some of the double-digit shots that Vincent was occupying.
NBA Bet Pro has Lowry going for 12.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 5.8 assists for 22.3 PRA, well above the 17.0 he had been averaging in the playoffs. That gives the over on 21.5 a 53% expected win rate, and the plus money bumps the EV to the top of the NBA Bet Pro model.
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