The weekend is over and it feels a little bit like a case of the Mondays this morning, at least for me. There are only seven games to consider on August 8, as more than half of the league enjoys a much-needed day off. It sure feels like we’re getting a ton of inconsistent efforts from teams in the middle of the pack, which is unfortunate because the good teams don’t really have value and the bad teams are so hard to bet as big underdogs.
When you follow a market every day, there are things that you notice and I’ve noticed that the MLB market is really tight. I don’t make my own lines, but the people I’ve talked to that do are saying the exact same thing. While baseball may not garner the same handle or as much general public betting interest as other sports, we’re well past the sample size of NBA or NHL for a full season and it allows the sportsbooks to hang pretty efficient numbers by the dog days of summer. Even though they’re making that transition to be more focused on football, it’s basically plug and play at this point.
I mentioned this briefly on The Run Line last night with host Ben Wilson and I think you should give the show a listen if you have some time today. HOUR 1 | HOUR 2
Nationals/Phillies: Philadelphia obliterated Washington in this series, which will likely happen a lot After winning in extra on Thursday, the Phillies won by 5, 6 and 12 over the weekend to improve to 60-48. I’d be wary of anointing this Phillies team just yet, as we’ll have to see them against better competition, but some teams struggle to beat inferior teams. The Phillies did not here.
Reds/Brewers: For example, the Brewers had an awful week against the Reds and Pirates and it actively hurt them in the Central Division race. The bullpen has been a mess since the Josh Hader trade and things just don’t feel right in Milwaukee. We’ll see if they can navigate through it, but this is a team that has been in a rut for a while now. Milwaukee is three games under .500 since May 6 and has lost six of the last seven.
Marlins/Cubs: Chicago was shut out on Sunday, but took two of three in very low-scoring games against the Marlins on the heels of a five-game losing streak. To me, I see the Cubs as a team we can bet on against fellow bottom-feeders, but would want to fade against any above average team. With the next nine games against the Nationals and Reds, maybe there will be some opportunities, though today’s line is pretty damn cost-prohibitive.
Padres/Dodgers: The Dodgers smacked the Padres around over the weekend with a thoroughly impressive three-game sweep. Los Angeles played well in every facet of the game, including a near-flawless defensive showing. The Dodgers won the series 20-4 and never really broke a sweat in the 4-0 win on Sunday. I came away extremely impressed. Now that the lead is up to 15.5 in the division and five games for the best record in the NL, I wonder if we see any minor hiccups stepping down in class against the Twins, Royals, Brewers (x7) and Marlins (x7) over the next three weeks.
Rockies/Diamondbacks: This had to be a frustrating series for the Rockies. They were in line to win on Friday, narrowly escaped with a 3-2 win on Saturday and then dropped the finale with another bad bullpen effort, as Alex Colome was the losing pitcher in both games. The Diamondbacks are 7-7 since the Break, while the Rockies are just 5-12.
Colorado plays 11 of the next 14 at home, so it may be time to play on them a bit more, as they’ve been a bad road team all season long.