Odds are against the Detroit Pistons (16-55), who are a 9.5-point underdog when they take the court against the Miami Heat (38-34) on March 19, 2023. The game has a point total of 218.5.
The Heat have not yet covered the spread as favorites of 9.5 points or more this season (0-3).
The Pistons have an 11-12-1 record against the spread this season when an underdog by 9.5 points or more.
Between them, these two teams average 1.6 more points per game (220.1) than this matchup’s total (218.5).
Opponents of these two teams have averaged a combined 228.3 points per game, 9.8 more than the over/under in this matchup.
The average total in Heat games this year is 0.1 more points than the over/under of 218.5 in this game.
Detroit’s games this season have averaged an over/under of 229.6 points, 11.1 more than the point total in this matchup.
Miami’s ATS record is 25-43-4 this season.
The Pistons have a 31-39-1 record against the spread this season.
The Heat average 109 points per game (30th in the league) while allowing 109.7 per contest (second in the NBA). They have a -48 scoring differential overall.
The Heat lose the rebound battle by 1.1 boards on average. They record 40.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 27th in the league, while their opponents grab 42 per outing.
Miami connects on 11.7 three-pointers per game (17th in the league), 1.5 fewer than its opponents (13.2). It is shooting 33.8% from beyond the arc (28th in the NBA) while allowing opponents to shoot 37%.
The Heat’s 109.5 points per 100 possessions on offense rank 26th in the NBA, and the 110 points they allow per 100 possessions rank sixth in the league.
The Heat have scored at a higher clip at home than on the road in the 2022-23 season (110.5 at home versus 107.3 on the road), though they have allowed fewer points at home than away from home (109.2 opponent points per home game versus 110.2 on the road).
The Pistons’ -534 scoring differential (being outscored by 7.5 points per game) is a result of putting up 111.1 points per game (28th in NBA) while giving up 118.6 per outing (29th in league).
Detroit records 42.7 rebounds per game (20th in league) while allowing 44.8 per outing to opponents. It is outrebounded by 2.1 boards per game.
The Pistons hit 11.5 three-pointers per game (19th in the league) at a 35.2% rate (21st in NBA), compared to the 11.9 their opponents make, shooting 36.1% from deep.
The Pistons average 108 points per 100 possessions on offense (28th in league), and concede 115.6 points per 100 possessions (27th in NBA).
Detroit is scoring more points at home (112.8 per game) than on the road (109.1).
Bam Adebayo averages 21 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game.
Jimmy Butler contributes with 6.1 boards and five assists per game in addition to his 22.6 PPG scoring average.
Tyler Herro makes more threes per game than any other (active) member of the Heat, knocking down shots from beyond the arc at a clip of three per contest.
Butler picks up 1.9 takeaways per game, while Adebayo collects 0.9 rejections per contest.
Jaden Ivey puts up 15.4 points per game. He also contributes 3.9 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this season.
Jalen Duren has per-game averages of 8.8 points, 1.1 assists and 8.9 rebounds this season.
Ivey averages 1.4 made threes per game.
Killian Hayes’ 1.4 steals and Duren’s 0.9 blocks per game are key to the Pistons’ defensive production.
Over (218.5)
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