Guardians vs. Royals Odds

The first installment of this three-game AL Central series gets underway Monday with the Kansas City Royals hosting the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland is going to have to put together a pretty remarkable run to end the campaign if it wants any chance of catching the first-place Minnesota Twins and a subsequent playoff berth.

Will the Guardians take care of business, or can the Royals defend their home diamond?

Here’s a look at the odds and my Guardians vs. Royals betting pick and prediction.

Cleveland has failed to get over the hump this season due to its hitting. The Guardians rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.

However, the one thing they do well is avoid strikeouts as they rank first in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching this year. Looking at Monday’s projected starting lineup, seven of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 19%.

This success in avoiding the punchout is likely to continue against right-hander Brady Singer, who is slated to take the mound for Kansas City. Through 125 career plate appearances against Singer, this current Cleveland lineup owns a mere 11.2 K% and 16.7 Whiff%.

Another tough outing may be in-store for Singer, who has struggled mightily this season. Through 28 starts, the right-hander is 8-11 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.

He is 0-3 with a 10.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP over his past four starts. Singer’s underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as he ranks in the 21st percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%.

Singer ranks in the 27th percentile or lower in Chase%, Whiff% and K%. That is the avenue in which we will fade the Royals’ pitcher in this contest.

Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 3.5 at PointsBet, a total Singer has failed to surpass in three of his past four starts.

Singer’s strikeout woes are likely to continue against the Guardians, a team he typically struggles against. Over his past nine starts against Cleveland, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.87 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

He recorded three or fewer strikeouts in six of those nine outings. Cleveland is a tough lineup to strike out, and mix in all the other variables mentioned above and I like Singer to stay under his strikeout prop in this matchup once again.

Pick: Brady Singer Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-115 | Play up to -130)

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