Tournament starts 10am Sunday, live on Eurosport
Daniil Medvedev
2pts each-way 7-1 general
Casper Ruud
1pt each-way 16-1 general
With Rafael Nadal ruled out in his pursuit of an unprecedented 15th French Open title, there is a rare opportunity for a new champion to be crowned, and Spain feel they have the ready-made replacement to take over the King of Clay’s reign in Carlos Alcaraz.
The 20-year-old is already world number one after claiming his maiden Grand Slam title at last year’s US Open and many predict he will dominate the clay-court Major once compatriot Nadal opts to call time on his career.
Having claimed seven of his ten career wins on his preferred slower surface, Alcaraz is rightly favourite following successful title defences in Barcelona and Madrid at the end of April and beginning of May.
However, Alexander Zverev had his measure in the quarter-final at Roland Garros last year while a round-of-32 exit against Hungarian world number 115 Fabian Marozsan in Rome last time out was further evidence that he is not yet the finished article.
Daniil Medvedev’s title triumph at the Italian Open has also given the draw a shake-up and the Russian’s success has helped him leapfrog Novak Djokovic as world number two.
That means rising star Alcaraz and two-time French Open champion Djokovic are on course to crash in a blockbuster semi-final, while 2021 runner-up Stefanos Tsitsipas is also lurking in a star-studded top half.
The route to the semis appears harder for Alcaraz, who may meet Tsitsipas in the quarter-final, but Djokovic has failed to go beyond the last eight in three appearances during this clay-court campaign and has never been one to place maximum trust in on this tougher terrain.
With that duo taking up much of the market, the bottom half of the draw is the place to go and, even after winning in Rome, Medvedev may have been overlooked.
This surface was thought to be Medvedev’s weakness but that clay-court breakthrough in Italy, where he dropped only one set in six matches and recorded routine wins over Zverev, Tsitsipas and Holger Rune, could have barely been timed better.
Given conditions are set to be similar in Paris, Rome looks a good guide and that is arguably the strongest recent form on offer.
If he can replicate those performances, Medvedev should have few concerns before a potential quarter-final meeting with Jannik Sinner.
But the Italian withdrew prior to a last-eight clash in Barcelona in April through injury and proved vulnerable in his homeland most recently, losing to Francisco Cerundolo in the last 16.
Even so, Medvedev has perhaps been the form player of the season with five title wins, which includes Masters 1000 events in Miami and Rome, and he makes great each-way appeal as he seeks his second Grand Slam title.
If the Russian 27-year-old fails to deliver then one of Rune, Zverev, Sinner or Casper Ruud will almost certainly capitalise.
But of that quartet it is last year’s runner-up Ruud, who found only Nadal too good, that looks overpriced in his bid to go one better.
The Norwegian is the exact definition of a clay-court specialist, having won nine of his ten career titles on the surface, and a semi-final run in Rome shows he is holding his form well.
Rune got the better of Ruud in a deciding set on that occasion and they could meet again in the quarter-final at Roland Garros.
However, that recent encounter showed they are evenly matched and Ruud had won the previous four clay-court meetings between the pair, including their quarter-final showdown in Paris last year.
So at twice the price of the young Dane, 24-year-old Ruud must be of each-way interest, especially with firms offering half the odds. That would yield a profit if either Ruud or Medvedev, who can duel in the semis, reach the final and give punters a free hit in the title decider.
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