Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes kicks of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series races. The 1 1/8 mile Grade 3 race at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans drew a full and competitive field of 14 runners and carries a purse of $400,000. The 15 Championship Series races over the next three months are essentially “Win and You’re In” qualifying races with the winner earning enough points to get into the starting gate for the May 6 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
Opening pari-mutuel odds show Victory Formation (3/1) as the morning line favorite. He’s 3-for-3 and won a Kentucky Derby prep race on New Year’s Day by 3-lenghts over Risen Star contender Angel of Empire. But know that just 3 of the last 15 post time favorites in the Risen Star have won the race.
You can watch and wager on the Risen Star Stakes (7:14 p.m. ET) through FanDuel Racing, and FanDuel TV will be live on-site at Fair Grounds with exclusive coverage of the Risen Star Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Expert analysis and behind-the-scenes coverage by FanDuelTV’s staff of the 13-race card includes six stakes races. Race 12 is a Rachel Alexandra Stakes for 3-year-old fillies awarding qualifying points (50-20-15-10-5) to the May 5 Kentucky Oaks. Race 13 is the Risen Star Stakes with the top 5 finishers picking up points (50-20-15-10-5) for the May 6 Kentucky Derby.
A guaranteed prize pool of $500,000 for the all-stakes Late Pick 5 (races 9-13) will generate added wagering interest on a big day of racing at the Fair Grounds.
Along with FanDuel Racing coverage, I turned to the experts at Horse Racing Nation (HRN) and it’s Super Screener big stakes race analysis for more insight and complete race coverage.
All but #12 Crupi (15/1) will be testing 9 furlongs (1 1/8 miles) for the first time.
The Risen Star tends to give an advantage to horses with early speed. The last six winners were all racing first, second, or third after the opening half-mile. The HRN pace projection shows the pace leaders are expected to come from the far outside with #14 Private Creed and #13 Victory Formation on the front end. Private Creek will help ensure an honest pace for his stablemates #5 Harlocap and #11 Silver Heist, and Victory Formation will do the same for his stablemates #6 Angel of Empire and the Super Screener Top Win pick #8 Tapit’s Conquest. Both #9 Curly Jack and the Super Screener other Top Win pick, #10 Two Phil’s, are expected to secure ideal pressing trips.
Tapit’s Conquest is the HRN Super Screener most reliable board hitter (top 3 in-the-money finish) and a top value play along with Two Phil’s. Four of the last 5 Risen Star winners have been won by horses that have excited a race at the Fair Grounds, which fits the profile for both those win contenders, but not the other two.
Trainer Brad Cox has three favorites and leading win contenders in the race in Victory Formation (3/1), Tapit’s Conquest (6/1) and Angel of Empire (8/1).
Tapit’s Conquest has moved forward in each of his three races, and he’s expected to relish the added ground. He’s a son of super sire Tapit, and posted his fasted speed figure when finishing second here last month. He’ll try to buck a trend running in his first stakes race, as 14 of the last 15 Risen Star winners had previously contested a stakes race, and 13 of them had previously contested a graded stakes.
According to trainer trainer Larry Rivelli, Two Phil’s is by far the best horse he has ever trained. He won a Grade 3 Derby prep over a sloppy surface in Oct, and returned last month as a 3-year-old to run even faster and finish second in another Grade 3 Derby prep.
Harlocap has been transferred from the Bob Baffert barn (suspended by Churchill Downs) to trainer Steve Asmussen so he’s eligible to earn qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby. Harlocap is a son of Triple Crown winner Justify, and he broke his maiden last month and now faces winners for the first time.
Curly Jack is a son of two-time Grade 1 winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic.
Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener says the Risen Star has “high payoff potential” with the win contenders and added horses to use underneath for exacta, trifecta and superfecta payoffs. Those include: #12 Crupi (15/1), #7 Sun Thunder (15/1), #6 Angel of Empire (8/1) and #4 Determinedly (8/1).
Six fine 3-year-old fillies battle for Kentucky Oaks qualifying points, and the Horse Racing Nation Super Screener picks these female horses as top win contenders.
Vahva is the most reliable board hitter and top value.
In Race 11 and the Grade 3 Fair Grounds Stakes, the picks as top win contenders are:
Gentle Soul (7/2) is a reliable board hitter and Cavalry Charge is top value.
Last year’s Risen Star winner Epicenter and third-place finisher Zandon went on to finish second and third in the 2022 Kentucky Derby, respectively. In total, 33 starters in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby have run in the Kentucky Derby since 2013 — the most of any Kentucky Derby points prep races.
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