Mar 30, 2023; Miami, Florida, US; Elena Rybakina (KAZ) reacts after losing a point against Jessica Pegula (USA) (not pictured) in a women’s singles semifinal on day eleven of the Miami Open at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

• Indian Wells champion Elena Rybakina goes for the “Sunshine Double” against veteran Petra Kvitova in Miami
• There’s nearly a decade’s age difference between the two, who are both Wimbledon champions
• Read on as we break down whether 33-year-old Kvitova can upset Rybakina and win the Miami Open

The most surprised person in the place that Petra Kvitova blasted her way to the Miami Open final likely is … Kvitova herself.

Rybakina vs Kvitova Odds

But at -300 odds, Rybakina is the solid favorite in the Rybakina vs Kvitova Miami Open final Saturday afternoon (3pm ET).  Kvitova is the underdog at +225 odds.

Odds as of April 1 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Use this FanDuel promo code to bet on the Miami Open.

Battling the Elements, Kvitova Looks for Title

The 33-year-old Czech lefty  first played the Miami Open  in 2008. But for a player of her caliber, a total of three career quarterfinals was probably an underperformance. And a lot of that has to do with the heat and humidity, which disagree more with the asthmatic Kvitova than many players.

But this year, she has ridden a hot streak all the way to the final.

In the last two rounds, she faced hard-hitting but inconsistent players – much like Kvitova herself, except far less accomplished – in Ekaterina Makarova and Sorana Cirstea.

But with two tough matches back-to-back (the semifinal scheduled for Thursday was played Friday after the quarterfinal was pushed back a day by rain), it’s hard to know if Kvitova will have a third consecutive day of energy left.

Rybakina vs Kvitova Head-to-Head

Rybakina Survives Pegula, Gets an Extra Day Off

The semifinal match Thursday night between No. 3 seed Jessica Pegula and Rybakina was the American’s for the taking.

Rybakina was NOT feeling it. Her serve velocity was down a bit, and Pegula’s depth of shot had her giving up on far too many rallies.

She was also dealing with coach Stefano Vukov’s incessant, non-stop chatter from the coach’s box. If she was on  the other side of the court, he would yell at her. If she was on his side, he would call her name out constantly to get her attention. A couple of times, she even looked at him and told him to just stop talking.

Rybakina also had tape on her back, starting at the top of the shoulders and criss-crossing across her back. Had he lost the first set against Pegula – she probably should have – it might have been over quickly.

But Pegula, who will rue the lost opportunity of a less-than-100% Rybakina across the net, did not seize the day.

Rybakina vs Kvitova Match History

That match was Thursday night, hours after Kvitova had completed her quarterfinal match.

The extra day, and Kvitova’s compressed schedule, will give Rybakina even more of an edge.

Rybakina vs Kvitova Prediction

Only a few have won Indian Wells and Miami back to back (Graf, Clijsters, Azarenka, Iga Swiatek in 2022). The different conditions require a pretty major adjustment, and the cumulative toll of the 96-player draws, with six wins required to take each title for the 32 seeds, gets the best of most players.

Rybakina will come in fresher. She serves a lot harder (assuming she’s fit).

And while both are very tall, slightly awkward movers, Rybakina does glide around a little better.

Kvitova arguably hits harder overall. And if she loses this velocity battle on serve, she makes up for it with her leftiness.

But given the circumstances – at least the 3 p.m. start means the hot Miami sun will have passed over the court and they’ll play in the shade – the Czech have to just go on another one of those blinders to win it. She did this after being way down in the first set against Cirstea; but Rybakina is a different proposition.

Rybakina vs Kvitova vs Picks: Rybakina in Two Sets (-105)

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