Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s betting on the St. Joseph Hawks at the Kentucky Wildcats.

St. Josephs at Kentucky (-15.5): O/U 150.5

St. Joes will play its first road game of the season and go to Kentucky as big underdogs of 16 points.

The Hawks do not match up well and considering the 57-54 home loss to Texas A&M Commerce in the previous game, Kentucky should lock down St. Joes.

The Wildcats rank 36th in defensive efficiency and held its opponents to 46, 61, 89, and 67 points. Kansas scored 89 (neutral court) and Stonehill dropped 67 in a 101-67 loss at Kentucky.

St. Joes lives at the three-point line, scoring 39.5% of its points there (22nd-most) compared to only 14.5% from the free-throw line (310th). The Hawks are shooting 32% from three (178th), plus 68.8% from the line (215th), which as a reminder, are numbers from four home games against inferior opponents.

The Wildcats hold their opponents 29.9% from three, post the 21nd-best defensive rebounding percentage, and force a turnover 21.5% of the time on defense (81st) compared to turning the ball over 10.6% on offense (6th).

Both Kentucky and St. Joes rank 304th or slower in defensive tempo forcing opponents into longer possessions. The Hawks scored 53, 62, and 56 points in their first three road/neutral court games outside of Philly last season. I think that happens to start road play at Kentucky this year.

I played St. Joe’s Team Total Under 66.5 at -125 odds and would go down to 64.5. This line could fluctuate anywhere from 64.5 to 68.5 based on Kentucky -15.5 being a hot side today, which I wouldn’t say no to.

Pick: St. Joes Team Total Under 66.5 (1u)
*game odds courtesy of BetMGM

Season Record: 10-1 (90.9%) +9.85 units

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