Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his quarterfinal match over Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada at the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, Calif., Thursday, March 16, 2023.

• The last match between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, at the last US Open, was an epic clash
• Alcaraz is the slight favorite in their Indian Wells semifinal, set for Saturday (9 pm EDT)
• Read on as we break down our Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction between two of the brightest young stars in men’s tennis

The last time Carlos Alcaraz met Jannik Sinner it went five sets, took five hours and 15 minutes and ended at 2:50 am – the latest finish in US Open history. And it was only the quarterfinals; Alcaraz went on to win the whole thing. Will it be another long match in Saturday’s Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction? Find out here.

Alcaraz vs Sinner Odds

There is plenty of anticipation for this, the fifth edition of Alcaraz vs Sinner. Alcaraz is the -173 favorite in the Indian Wells odds above. He’s -2.5 on the spread and the match total is set at 22.5 games.

Alcaraz vs Sinner odds as of March 17 at FanDuel.

The winner plays the winner of the Daniil Medvedev and Frances Tiafoe picks in the other semifinal.

Alcaraz Looking Out for No. 1

With Novak Djokovic missing Indian Wells once again because his unvaccinated status won’t allow him to enter the US, Alcaraz can retake the No. 1 spot in the ATP Tour rankings if he wins Indian Wells.

He was already defending a semifinal result in the desert, so that tells you how he’s been hovering around the top spot despite missing the Australian Open. He won Miami a year ago, so the No. 1 spot is likely to be on the line again as anything but a title defence would drop Alcaraz down again.

Alcaraz vs Sinner Head-to-Head

Alcaraz’s win over Félix Auger-Aliassime Thursday night in the quarterfinals was a wakeup call for the Canadian – and, he said, for the rest of the Tour as well. They will all have to get better in every area, because facing a fresh, healthy Alcaraz is a major, major challenge.

Auger-Aliassime came in with a 3-0 record against the Spaniard, but he’d never faced fully-fit Alcaraz and it was all he could do to even stay close in a 6-4, 6-4 loss during which the Canadian didn’t play badly at all.

That’s how good Alcaraz is. Which is no secret to anyone.

Alcaraz vs Sinner Match History

Last Meeting an Epic Marathon

There are some matches people remember for a long time. And Alcaraz vs Sinner at the US Open is one of those.

The speed on display with these two, even into the sixth hour, was so dazzling that it was like watching a game of ping-pong on fast forward.

The surface at Indian Wells is notoriously a lot slower. But that won’t slow down their foot speed at all.

When asked Thursday night, Alcaraz said he thought he was faster. But that Sinner hit the ball harder.

The Spaniard has shown no weaknesses on the Indian Wells court; if Sinner’s win over defending champion Taylor Fritz was a surprise to some, Alcaraz will be an even more formidable challenge.

Alcaraz vs Sinner Prediction

Sinner is playing well enough that, if you go with the theory that Alcaraz is due for a bit of a dip, the Italian can take advantage.

Alcaraz also hasn’t had much tennis this season. And even with the elongated 12-day schedule, it’s his first hard-court tennis of the season and on the slow court, it’s tough on the body.

Sinner’s ball-striking is good – no, it’s great. And it’s enough to leave Alcaraz scrambling on defense a little more than he’d like. And it also could leave him with less to work with in terms of being as aggressive as he’d like.

That dynamic, on the faster US Open hard court, was very much at play. Which is why this one is expected to be another marathon in our Alcaraz vs Sinner prediction.

Over 25.5 total games has odds set at +122.

Alcaraz vs Sinner Picks: Alcaraz Wins the Match; Both Players Win a Set (+260)

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