Carlos Alcaraz of Spain waves to fans as he walks off the court after defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada in their quarterfinal match at the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, Calif., Thursday, March 16, 2023.
Carlos Alcaraz is 13-1 on the season. Daniil Medvedev is 24-2, has won his last 19 matches and his last three tournaments. So the Indian Wells men’s singles final is a clash of two highly in-form players. Read on for an analysis of Alcaraz vs Medvedev.
| Player | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| [1] Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | -0.5 (-118) | -124 | O 22.5 (-118) |
| [5] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +0.5 (-112) | +102 | U 22.5 (-112) |
There is plenty of anticipation for this second edition of Alcaraz vs Sinner. Alcaraz is a slight favorite at -124 in the Indian Wells odds above. He’s -0.5 on the spread and the match total is set at 22.5 games.
Alcaraz vs Medvedev odds as of March 18 at FanDuel Spoersbook.
With Novak Djokovic shut out of the U.S. Masters 1000 doubles because he remains unvaccinated, it’s an opportunity for Alcaraz to take back the No. 1 ranking.
For however long that lasts.
If he wins Indian Wells, he wll be No. 1 again – at least until the end of Miami, where he is defending a title and 1000 points and therefore can’t add anything more.
Medvedev will be back in the top five at No. 5, regardless of what happens.
While both will be motivated to win a Masters 1000, having the No. 1 ranking at stake for Alcaraz just adds some spice to the thing.
| 19 (May 5, 2003) | Age | 27 (Feb. 11, 1996) |
| El Palmar, Spain | Birthplace | Moscow, Russia |
| 6-0 | Height | 6-6 |
| 7 | Career ATP Singles Titles | 18 |
| No. 1 (Sept. 12, 2022) | Career-Best Ranking | No. 1 (Feb. 28, 2022) |
| No. 2 | Current Ranking | No. 6 |
| $12,127,587 | Career Prize Money | $27,415,119 |
| 13-1 | 2022 Won/Loss Record | 24-2 |
| 2 | ATP Head-to-Head Wins | 2 |
Alcaraz’s semifinal match against fellow young gun Jannik Sinner was expected to be blockbuster – especially after their late-night, early-morning classic quarterfinal at the US Open last summer.
The reality wasn’t quite as epic. In the end Alcaraz pulled off a tight (in the first set) but straight-sets, 7-6 (4), 6-3 win over the 21-year-old Italian.
The two sets took nearly two hours. But Alcaraz’s 72 per cent first-serve percentage helped him avoid much trouble on his serve; Sinner only created two break points.
The teenager went 13-for-18 at the net, while Sinner was only 9-for-21.
Those net skills might come in handy against Medvedev on Sunday.
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In the first semifinal of the day, Frances Tiafoe gave Medvedev everything he had.
SEVEN match point saves and a whole lotta drama 😨
Reliving the crazy ending to Medvedev vs Tiafoe at #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/6EoLJ3A9hU
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 18, 2023
But already, making the Indian Wells semifinals was a big accomplishment. He took advantage of the Russian (admittedly) getting tight in trying to close it out. But generally he just wasn’t able to create many opportunities on Medvedev’s serve, while Medvedev had 11 break-point opportunities on Tiafoe’s serve (and converted three).
| Year | Tournament | Surface | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Wimbledon (R64) | Grass | 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 | Medvedev |
It’s easy to forget, as good as Alcaraz already is, that he’s still in his first moments on the ATP Tour.
He has only played Medvedev once before. And that was nearly two years ago, when he started the 2021 season at No. 146. He moved into the top 100 after winning a Challenger in Portugal just before his second try at the qualifying at the French Open. Which he got through easily, and then went to the third round of the main draw.
💥 Hotshot!
📍Wimbledon 2021
2R
🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz vs 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev
🎥 Créditos – Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/jdo4OPy5ZY
— Carlos Alcaraz – Fans (@CarlosAlcaraz_1) July 29, 2021
He didn’t play again until Wimbledon – his debut there. Actually, his first pro matches on grass, period. He had played a tuneup event and junior Wimbledon back in 2019.
And after winning his first round in five sets, Alcaraz didn’t have much for Medvedev, who is definitely not a fan of grass. But even then, the Russian dropped just seven games.
This one should be quite different.
Such a tough call on this one. There is so little data to go by with these two.
But it feels as though it’s going to take a supreme effort to beat the 19-year-old Spaniard this week.
He has the skills to take advantage of Medvedev’s deep court positioning. And he’ll need them.
Unless he gets tight because of the stakes involved (at least it won’t be his first No. 1 rodeo), he looks ot be the winner.
Alcaraz vs Medvedev Picks: Alcaraz in Three Sets (+290)
Stephanie Myles
Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She’s written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
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