Carlos Alcaraz of Spain waves to fans as he walks off the court after defeating Felix Auger-Aliassime of Canada in their quarterfinal match at the BNP Paribas Open at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, Calif., Thursday, March 16, 2023.

• Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev is an Indian Wells finals matchup of the hottest players on the ATP Tour
• Medvedev is looking for his fourth straight tournament title; Alcaraz is looking for the No. 1 ranking
• Read on as we break down the matchup and pick a winner

Carlos Alcaraz is 13-1 on the season. Daniil Medvedev is 24-2, has won his last 19 matches and his last three tournaments. So the Indian Wells men’s singles final is a clash of two highly in-form players. Read on for an analysis of Alcaraz vs Medvedev.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Odds

There is plenty of anticipation for this second edition of Alcaraz vs Sinner. Alcaraz is a slight favorite at -124 in the Indian Wells odds above. He’s -0.5 on the spread and the match total is set at 22.5 games.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev odds as of March 18 at FanDuel Spoersbook.

Alcaraz Looking For No. 1

With Novak Djokovic shut out of the U.S. Masters 1000 doubles because he remains unvaccinated, it’s an opportunity for Alcaraz to take back the No. 1 ranking.

For however long that lasts.

If he wins Indian Wells, he wll be No. 1 again – at least until the end of Miami, where he is defending a title and 1000 points and therefore can’t add anything more.

Medvedev will be back in the top five at No. 5, regardless of what happens.

While both will be motivated to win a Masters 1000, having the No. 1 ranking at stake for Alcaraz just adds some spice to the thing.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Head-to-Head

Alcaraz’s semifinal match against fellow young gun Jannik Sinner was expected to be blockbuster – especially after their late-night, early-morning classic quarterfinal at the US Open last summer.

The reality wasn’t quite as epic. In the end Alcaraz pulled off a tight (in the first set) but straight-sets, 7-6 (4), 6-3 win over the 21-year-old Italian.

The two sets took nearly two hours. But Alcaraz’s 72 per cent first-serve percentage helped him avoid much trouble on his serve; Sinner only created two break points.

The teenager went 13-for-18 at the net, while Sinner was only 9-for-21.

Those net skills might come in handy against Medvedev on Sunday.

Medevev Too Strong for Tiafoe

In the first semifinal of the day, Frances Tiafoe gave Medvedev everything he had.

SEVEN match point saves and a whole lotta drama 😨

Reliving the crazy ending to Medvedev vs Tiafoe at #TennisParadise pic.twitter.com/6EoLJ3A9hU

— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) March 18, 2023

But already, making the Indian Wells semifinals was a big accomplishment. He took advantage of the Russian (admittedly) getting tight in trying to close it out. But generally he just wasn’t able to create many opportunities on Medvedev’s serve, while Medvedev had 11 break-point opportunities on Tiafoe’s serve (and converted three).

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Match History

A Rivalry Yet to Begin

It’s easy to forget, as good as Alcaraz already is, that he’s still in his first moments on the ATP Tour.

He has only played Medvedev once before. And that was nearly two years ago, when he started the 2021 season at No. 146. He moved into the top 100 after winning a Challenger in Portugal just before his second try at the qualifying at the French Open. Which he got through easily, and then went to the third round of the main draw.

💥 Hotshot!

📍Wimbledon 2021

2R

🇪🇸 C. Alcaraz vs 🇷🇺 D. Medvedev

🎥 Créditos – Wimbledon pic.twitter.com/jdo4OPy5ZY

— Carlos Alcaraz – Fans (@CarlosAlcaraz_1) July 29, 2021

He didn’t play again until Wimbledon – his debut there. Actually, his first pro matches on grass, period. He had played a tuneup event and junior Wimbledon back in 2019.

And after winning his first round in five sets, Alcaraz didn’t have much for Medvedev, who is definitely not a fan of grass. But even then, the Russian dropped just seven games.

This one should be quite different.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Prediction

Such a tough call on this one. There is so little data to go by with these two.

But it feels as though it’s going to take a supreme effort to beat the 19-year-old Spaniard this week.

He has the skills to take advantage of Medvedev’s deep court positioning. And he’ll need them.

Unless he gets tight because of the stakes involved (at least it won’t be his first No. 1 rodeo), he looks ot be the winner.

Alcaraz vs Medvedev Picks: Alcaraz in Three Sets (+290)

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