Welcome to my self-proclaimed “Bet Week” here on
BasketballNews.com. During the quiet portion of the NBA offseason,
this feels like the perfect time to check in on the newly-released
Vegas odds. We’ll put each award race under the microscope, and
break down over/under win total projections as well.
Let’s kick it off with what looks to be a star-studded rookie
class entering the Association. Here are the best bets for 2022-23
NBA Rookie of the Year award as well as an underdog flier.
Paolo Banchero, Orlando
When the Orlando Magic stunned everyone by selecting Banchero
atop the draft, the fit was never questioned because of how special
he is scoring the basketball. Immediately, Banchero enters
Orlando’s rotation as the No. 1 option, and his dominant Summer
League outing in Las Vegas showcased exactly that.
For years, the Magic have been missing an alpha who can take
over the game, creating for himself and others. With Banchero
aboard, Orlando has their face of the franchise who will offer
immediate value to potential ROY bettors as well.
The Magic may not win many games next season, but everything is
set up well for Banchero to put up impressive numbers throughout
his rookie campaign. There’s no reason to believe Banchero won’t be
an immediate near-20-point-per-game scorer along with some
all-around statistics as well.
Similar to how LaMelo Ball recently won ROY, putting up huge
numbers on a bottom-feeder team, Banchero’s argument is a strong
Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma
City Thunder (+350)
The further we get from the draft, the more I love Holmgren’s
fit with the Thunder. It’s already a strong match on paper, but
Holmgren’s two-way potential makes him perfect alongside Shai
Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort. Holmgren flashed
special capabilities at Gonzaga with such a unique skill package
for his size, which should be pressed into overdrive thanks to NBA
Oklahoma City is still a year or two away from climbing up the
tough Western Conference ladder, but their pieces are set to
coalesce and form a special unit. Holmgren is now a key pillar to
the Thunder’s historic rebuild attempt, and there’s no denying the
instant chemistry he displayed with Giddey during NBA Summer
League. Holmgren will be fed as a top option alongside SGA, so
having him so close to Banchero in odds rankings does make a lot of
Armed with the ability to splash threes and defend the rim at an
elite level, Holmgren within OKC’s player development program has
me giddy for what’s to come next.
Indiana Pacers (+1000)
There’s an underrated flier on the Rookie-of-the-Year betting
market that nobody is talking about. Say hello to Bennedict
Mathurin, the No. 6 overall pick and the Pacers’ highest draft pick
in 30-plus years.
Mathurin excelled in Las Vegas, averaging 19.3 points and 4.0
rebounds in 22 minutes per game. The former Arizona Wildcat can
score the ball with ease, as he flashed routinely during Summer
League. After three Summer League outings, the Pacers saw enough
and shut Mathurin down for precautionary reasons due to a sore toe.
Entering his rookie year, Mathurin is slotted into an extremely
important role for the Pacers as their overdue rebuild attempt gets
Mathurin’s score-first approach will mesh seamlessly with
pass-first point guard Tyrese Haliburton. Believe it or not,
Mathurin has the potential to be Indiana’s top scorer right away.
Haliburton is the face of the franchise in Indiana, but Mathurin
has the ultimate runway to take advantage as their top scorer.
Indiana’s over/under win total checks in at 24.5, which is tied
for the second-worst in the Association. Don’t expect to see many
close contests when you tune into Pacers games next season, but
they have a very fun young core that will develop together on the
At +1000 odds on DraftKings, Mathurin’s ROY value is immense.
Not only will Haliburton instantly elevate his counting numbers,
but Summer League helped further solidify that he’s one of the
smoothest scorers from the 2022 NBA Draft.
For all the latest NBA betting
trends, spreads, props and more, check out Basketball News’ betting
podcast “Nothing But Bets.”