The WNBA postseason is still a little more than a week away, but Sunday’s game between Las Vegas and Seattle should feature all the star power and tactical depth of a playoff series.
Coming off a pair of losses, the Aces will try to steady the ship as the Storm do its best to capsize it.
Our WNBA picks and predictions for Aces vs. Storm place a high premium on Seattle’s homecourt advantage and think the Storm’s defense will ultimately carry the day.
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The total for Aces vs. Storm opened at 167.5. The home team Storm have been pegged between -1 and -1.5-point favorites for Sunday’s game.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full WNBA odds before placing your bets.
Predictions made on 8/7/2022 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, WA
• Date: Sunday, August 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Aces: No key injuries to report.
Storm: Stephanie Talbot F (Probable).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
The Storm are 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Aces vs. Storm.
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
This is set to be a classic clash of styles featuring the league’s No. 1 offense in the Aces (108.6) and the No. 1 defense in the Storm (95.5).
Both teams are going through a bit of a rough patch, with the West-leading Aces amassing a 7-3 record over their last 10 games, and the Storm struggling to 6-4. The Aces are also on a two-game losing streak, including their most recent defeat to the Dallas Wings in a game they waited far too long to give their best effort in.
It’s not news at this point that the Aces have managed to leverage the perimeter offense of Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young and the interior attack of A’ja Wilson to force opposing teams into impossible binds. That Chelsea Gray, an outstanding pick-and-roll point guard and scorer in her own right, is often the fourth option for Las Vegas speaks to the absurd depth of their talent.
However, as we’ve seen before, the Aces’ offense goes through slumps nearly every game where the offense can stagnate, and this Storm team are experts in forcing stagnation.
Seattle isn’t nearly as talented an offensive team, but they do work to get the most out of what they have. Their 74.4 assist percentage leads the WNBA, a sign that they consistently work to find good shots, even though their 100.4 offensive rating is a bottom-half mark. One can never count Breanna Stewart out, and her style of play as a big that plays more like a wing might prove a difficult cover for Las Vegas.
Seattle is one of the few good defenses (the other being the Chicago Sky) that focuses its efforts on guarding the perimeter at the cost of allowing more paint scoring. That would have been a bad recipe against the Aces in prior seasons, but as we just saw in their game against Dallas, the Aces’ offense is now so 3-pointer reliant that a team determined and disciplined enough on the perimeter can spell trouble.
The Storm are one such team. Still, it’s a high variance strategy, and just a handful of blown rotations can be the difference in a line like this. That said, the Storm are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, in large part because they are so consistent on that side of the ball.
The only real question is whether the Aces or the Storm are more likely to play to their capabilities, and to me, it’s inarguable that the Storm should be the pick.
Prediction: Storm -1 (-110 at Betway)
Covers basketball betting analysis
The defining trait of a basketball star is consistency. Home, road, well-rested, or on a back-to-back, you can safely expect the A’ja Wilsons and Breanna Stewarts of the world to perform at a high level.
It’s role players who benefit most from home court advantage. They sleep in their own bed, have control over their routine, and (particularly in the WNBA where teams still fly commercial) they’re not left dealing with the innumerable headaches of travel just prior to tip-off.
For most teams, role players playing better at home means they shoot better, but in Seattle’s case, their team reaches a higher level collectively on the defensive end. It should be noted that Seattle’s home court advantage is special this season.
This is Sue Bird’s official retirement sendoff, and Climate Pledge Arena has been breaking sales records nightly as fans flood to Storm games to see off the soon-to-be Hall of Fame point guard. That energy has translated to dominant home court play by the Storm outside of a COVID-19-related hiccup at the start of the year.
The Storm are 8-2 in their last 10 home games, and in the two games they did lose, it wasn’t because their defense failed them — their opponent still failed to score 70 points in either loss.
Prediction: Under 167.5 (-110 at Betway)
Whichever team manages to dictate the style of play will likely have a huge effect on the total.
The Aces want to run opponents out of the gym, while the Storm want to grind them into dust. If the game plays out in Seattle’s favor, the odds of the Over hitting tumble. Conversely, if the one favors the Aces on the road, it’s likely because Kelsey Plum and Chelsea Gray got loose on the perimeter and in transition.
I’m more confident in Seattle to make that happen. The Aces will be motivated to avoid their first three-game losing streak of the season, but they haven’t played a quality 48 minutes in what feels like weeks now.
The Storm meanwhile, even when their shooting hasn’t consistently been there at points this season, have been suffocating teams in their barn.
The Under is 5-1 in the Storm’s last six home games, and a total this big isn’t giving either the Storm or the Aces’ defense enough credit.
Pick: Under 167.5 (-110 at Betway)
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