This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Valero Texas Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!
The Masters is a week out but we still have one stop on Tour before the focus shifts gears to Augusta National. Nearly ever player in this field will tee it up for FedEx Cup points, a ton of money, and the last available spot in this year’s Masters. J.J. Spaun is back to defend his title and ironically looking to duplicate his efforts without a Master’s spot this season. A host of young golfers look for a breakthrough win ahead of the biggest event of the year. Read through our preview before you get to this week’s betting picks. Let’s get to it.
At the time of this writing – March 29th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
|Si Woo Kim||+1800|
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
Rickie Fowler is likely to be the darling this week with everyone pointing to his desperate need to make it back to Augusta. That said, all but ten players in this field feel the same way this week. Matt Kuchar is one of those players looking to make another trip back to Augusta National and finds himself at a very comfortable course.
Kuchar could have the best course history here without a victory. He boasts several high finishes including second place last year. Further, he is coming into this week in solid form after a nice run in the WGC Matchplay event. Finally, Kuchar gets to play on a track that won’t demand to much length because of the dry conditions. As a one-and-done play, I anticipate Kuchar will be used far less than Fowler. He gets my vote and my money at 31/1 on FanDuel. We will place a 0.7 unit wager on the veteran.
Speaking of shorter hitters that hit fairways, Brendon Todd checks in for us again on a course more suited to his abilities. Todd had a nice history as well at the Oaks Course with only one missed cut in his five attempts.
Todd has two top-ten finishes to his name with an 8th place last season. A course that demands hitting fairways where length isn’t an issue is Todd’s jam. He is steady around the green and with the putter — ranking in the top 20 in ARG, Putting, and 3-Putt Avoidance. We saw Todd contend for us weeks ago in a lesser field. This seems like as good a time to capitalize on a smaller course for the veteran.
We will add him to our card for a half-unit on BetMGM.
I will not lie. This is absolutely a FOMO play. Assuming you read our preview, you know that Ben Griffin is now the apple of my eye — filling the spot previously held by Corey Conners and Cameron Young. Sorry guys, your prices are too rich for my blood. I need to latch onto another young talent that is guaranteed to cost me outright money.
Griffin flashed some ability in the Matchplay and continues to play well on Tour. He has four consecutive made cuts in non-matchplay events but has cooled a bit since our earlier writeup for Griffin at Pebble Beach. Griffin looks the part on the course and rates out as one of the better players on and around the green (6th in ARG and 14th in Putting).
I won’t miss his first victory especially in a weaker field. We add him for a half-unit on FanDuel.
For our last spot, we look down the betting board for a bit of upside with Ben Martin. At 90/1, we are looking for a dynamic skillset that could pop in a good week. Martin offers that in spades this week.
Martin ranks 4th in approach and 6th in Good Drives in this week’s field over his last 36 rounds. He finished 8th last week at Corales and has made the cut five times at this event. Admittedly, those made cuts didn’t amount to much but Martin should be familiar with the course. If he strikes the ball well, he should be in contention come Sunday.
We talk about the motivation for players to make Augusta. I won’t forget Martin’s interview after his near-win at an alternate event on Tour last season. Martin is highly motivated every week to notch his first tour victory. There could not be a better time to earn your first win than this week. We add Martin for 0.3 units on DraftKings.
Valero Total Units in Play – 2.00
2023 Net Units: -21.40
Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.
Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.
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