While the world of golf as we know it has been flipped on its head with the Tuesday’s news of the PGA TOUR, DP World Tour, and PIF joining forces, there is still a PGA TOUR event to be played on Thursday. I’ll have plenty more thoughts to share on the state of golf once more details on the deal become available, but until then, we’ll keep the focus on 2023 RBC Canadian Open bets at Oakdale Golf & Country Club.
This is our first time seeing golf at a professional level at Oakdale Golf & Country Club. While we can’t be certain how exactly it will play out, the course layout suggests an advantage for the top short iron players, and benign scoring conditions overall. Click the odds anywhere in this article to place RBC Canadian Open bets at legal sports betting sites.
It’s a very interesting odds board to parse through at the 2023 RBC Canadian Open. Rory McIlroy is the prohibitive favorite at 5-1 odds, and he’s followed by a collective group of Hatton, Young, Fitzpatrick, Burns, Lowry, Fleetwood, Rose, and Conners all available at 20-1 odds or shorter. There’s a precipitous drop in odds after this group, so naturally my card, like most others this week, includes at least one of the top favorites complemented with a wider list of longshots to combat expected birdie fest conditions.
In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for RBC Canadian Open bets.
Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each
Click on any of the PGA odds below for the best available pricesacross legal sportsbooks in your state.
Sweating Rose (Zhang) was highlight of this season of golf betting for me last week, so we’re going to keep that momentum going with another Rose. Justin’s continued to keep the pedal down since his win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with a streak of six consecutive top-40s leading into this week. That includes three top-12s over the same stretch. He’s leaned on his elite approach play and putting through this resurgent 2023 campaign, and as the No. 4 overall rated player in my model this week, is an ideal profile fit to go low at Oakdale.
To be honest, I thought we’d see longer odds than this for Theegala after a few uninspiring finishes at the Memorial, PGA Championship, and Wells Fargo Championship. Considering all three of these courses share the same characteristics as long and challenging layouts, I’m content to look past these lackluster results knowing we have a shorter, easier test ahead at Oakdale.
Theegala has looked best on short, less-than-driver courses, picking up top-5 finishes at the RBC Heritage and Travelers Championship within the past year. We know he can get hot with the irons and putter, so if he can dial in his accuracy off-the-tee, Oakdale will be a nice fit for the Ryder Cup hopeful’s game.
Despite this being his second full season on the PGA TOUR, Svensson is no stranger to the Canadian Open, as he’ll be making his 7th career appearance this week. He’ll carry some new momentum into this one, coming off a career best T22 at St. George’s last year and picking up his first career PGA TOUR win at the top of this season.
Oakdale is an ideal course fit for Svensson, as he ranks No. 10 in my model this week, rating out top-10 in this field in Birdies or Better Gained, Comp Course History, and SG: P (Bent/Poa).
Nick Taylor may be the most underrated player on the PGA TOUR. A two-time winner on TOUR, Taylor has quietly picked up seven top-20 finishes this season, including a runner up to Scottie Scheffler at the WM Phoenix Open. Top-30 in SG: T2G, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: P, Taylor enters this week in well-rounded form across all areas of his game.
Eric Cole is a popular bet this week, and for good reason at this price. Taking the broadest view, Cole is top-5 in this field in total strokes gained over the last 36 or 50 rounds. That alone is worth a wager beyond 70-1 odds. This set up at Oakdale should play even further into his strengths of approach (No. 7) and Putting (No. 40) as well. With three top-25 finishes over his last four starts, Cole is my favorite value bet on the board for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open.
Hubbard continues to trend with his irons – the strongest of his skillsets – gaining 2+ strokes on approach in five of his last six starts. He’s made the cut in each of those six starts, with his best finishes coming on shorter courses more akin to what we’ll see at Oakdale this week. Those include a T11 at the RBC Heritage and T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Within one stroke of the lead entering Sunday at the Memorial last week, Hubbard’s game should continue to trend well on familiar northeast Bent/Poa greens this week.
This is my second time betting Chez Reavie outright this season, which is twice more than I ever would have expected going into this year. But, some newfound consistency on the greens makes him more viable than ever before, as we can always rely on Chez to hit a high percentage of fairways and greens in regulation. He picked up his first career PGA TOUR win at the Canadian Open 15 years ago, and has seven top-40 finishes at this event over nine career appearances.
Any time Carson Young is in the field at a presumed birdie fest, it’s going to grab my attention. He was recently a standout in U.S. Open qualifying, and has impressed with four top-25 finishes over his last five starts. He’s gained strokes in approach and putting in each of his last five starts, a positive sign heading into Oakdale Golf & Country Club.
RBC CANADIAN OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNIT)
Eric Cole is a top-tier player in this field in terms of both approach and putting, which is always the ideal combination needed to set the pace on a Thursday. He continued to look fresh when advancing through U.S. Open qualifying on Monday, and seems poised to continue his current hit streak on another quality course fit for his game.
With back to back top-20s leading into this week, Lipsky is heading to Toronto in top form. Top-20 in SG: APP, Prox: <150, and Opportunities Gained, Lipsky should be able to give himself plenty of birdie looks on this layout.
Admittedly, I had no idea who Vincent Norrman was before this week. I don’t know what he looks like and I’ve never seen him hit a golf shot. So, while the recent finishes (three top-20s over his last five starts) and stats (No. 6 SG: T2G last 12 rounds) all line up perfectly well for this week, I’ll settle for the FRL exposure until I’m more familiar with his game.
Well, this is about to get awkward. Months after officially declaring Rai as Sebastian Munoz’s auto-FRL replacement, a pathway has just been opened back up for Munoz to return to the PGA TOUR in 2024. That puts Rai on the hot seat for the rest of this season to sustain auto-bet status, with a solid course fit lined up ahead at Oakdale.
Speaking of auto-bets, any time we get to an easy scoring layout with copious amounts of birdies expected, I’m always going to look Carson Young’s way in the FRL market first and foremost. He continues to flash spike approach and putting upside leading into this week, which is exactly what’s needed to post a low score at Oakdale.
RBC CANADIAN OPEN PROPS (3 UNITS)
Top-40 Finish: Chez Reavie
My Bet: +185 Best Available Odds:
Reavie was the last man in on my outright card, but more realistically, it’s the placement market that suits him best this week. With two top-40 finishes over his last three starts and seven top-40s over his first nine career Canadian Open appearances, a top-40 finish seems to be the sweet spot when backing Reavie.
I am as confident as one can be about Cole’s prospects on this course, given his elite stat profile from an approach and putting standpoint. With four top-25 finishes over his last six starts, I’ll happily double down after my outright bet with a little top-20 insurance.
Lipsky has gained steam recently with a pair of top-20 finishes at the Memorial and Charles Schwab Challenge over his two most recent starts. No. 17 in my model this week, Oakdale seems to be a good fit to keep that trend going, as he ranks top-20 in SG: APP, Prox: <150, Opportunities Gained, and SG: TOT (Easy Scoring Conditions).
In the spirit of the Canadian Open, it’s only right to join the fun for this Nationality Prop. I’ll be betting against my other outright, Nick Taylor here, but there are select sportsbooks who give Svensson the best odds after Corey Conners to win this event outright. I agree with that assessment, which makes the +650 odds too good of a value to pass up.
ONE AND DONE
My Pick: Justin Rose
I don’t see many better opportunities to use Justin Rose for the rest of the season, and I while I expect his ownership will tell a story of many others arriving at the same conclusion, I just have a very good feeling about Rose’s current form and fit for this course. I’ll save some of the bigger names still at my disposal like Burns, Fitzpatrick, and Young for a higher purse event later this season.
If not Rose, I would also consider Sam Burns, Corey Conners, or Shane Lowry as OAD picks.
RBC CANADIAN OPEN: THE BETTING CARD
That’ll do it for this week’s RBC Canadian Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own Canadian Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the U.S. Open!