With three Grand Slams in the rearview mirror and the US Open more than a month away, many of the top names in the ATP singles rankings are not currently in action at the moment, whether due to injury or for some well-earned rest following an action-packed stretch.
But this week’s Hamburg European Open, an ATP 500 clay-court event, will not be devoid of star power, with the main draw headlined by rising star Carlos Alcaraz.
Alcaraz, who comes in at sixth in the latest ATP singles rankings, is the top seed in Hamburg and is making his return to action following his fourth-round exit at the hands of Jannik Sinner at Wimbledon.
Alcaraz is a heavy favorite to take the title, ahead of a fellow top-ten player in eighth-ranked Andrey Rublev, 14th-ranked Diego Schwartzman, and 2021 champion Pablo Carreno Busta.
Rublev and Carreno Busta both reached the semis of last week’s Swedish Open and are expected to be in the mix late in the week again in Hamburg. So are the two players they lost to in Bastad, runner-up Sebastian Baez and Swedish Open champion Francisco Cerundolo, who claimed his first ATP main tour title on Sunday with a 7-6 (7-4), 6-2 win over Baez.
Here are the odds to win the title in Hamburg:
Odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
With one of the brightest young stars in tennis in action, along with a number of other players who thrive on clay, we should be in for an exciting week of tennis at Am Rothenbaum.
Current ATP rankings are in parentheses.
Alcaraz could have a tricky matchup with Baez in the round of 16, but if he gets through that test, he could face Khachanov, who he dispatched 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 in the round of 16 at the French Open in May.
Since reaching the quarterfinals at the French Open, Rune hasn’t won a match. Last week in Sweden, he lost 6-3, 6-4 to qualifier Marc-Andrea Huesler in the first round. So, it’s hard to see him making a run in Hamburg.
From his quarter, I like Carreno Busta to reach the final four for the second straight week.
The Spaniard has largely underwhelmed since reaching the final of the Barcelona Open in April, and his semifinal loss to Cerundolo in Bastad was an upset and a letdown after an impressive 6-1, 6-0 win over Schwartzman in the quarters.
But along with having ATP rankings points to defend, Carreno Busta likes playing in Hamburg. Along with winning the title last year, he made the semifinals in 2019 and the quarters in 2018. Look for him to have another extended stay in the tournament this week.
I’d like to see Alejandro Davidovich Fokina finally find the form that he seems to have left behind after his surprise run to the Monte-Carlo Masters final back in April, but I’m not going to bank on it.
Schwartzman could face a challenge in his round of 16 match against the winner of the Lorenzo Musetti-Dusan Lajovic match, while Davidovich Fokina would be a pretty tough out if he can reach the quarters.
Schwartzman has had only one deep run in a tournament since losing to Alcaraz in the final of the Rio Open in Brazil in February. That came in Barcelona, where he defeated Musetti in the round of 16 on the way to the semis, where he lost to Carreno Busta.
But he is the best clay-courter in his quarter and should reach the semis if he brings his best in Hamburg.
Rublev won the title in Hamburg in 2020 and lost to Basilashvili in the final in 2019, so his chances certainly aren’t to be dismissed.
But at least one of the top seeds is likely to exit the tournament before Saturday, and Rublev is indeed the most vulnerable of the bunch. It’s less because of his own form or ability but more because of the dangerous matchup he could be up against in the round of 16.
It’s been a real breakout year on the ATP main tour for Cerundolo, who made a stunning run to the semis at the Miami Open in March and upset top seed Casper Ruud, #5 seed Carreno Busta, and #6 seed Baez in winning the Swedish Open.
Now comes the hard part of avoiding a letdown after such a successful week, but I like him to keep things going in Hamburg and advance out of his quarter. It might take wins over two former Hamburg champions in Rublev and Basilashvili, but the 23-year-old has the game to do it.
The wonderkid may be disappointed by losses in the quarters of the French Open and the fourth round at Wimbledon, but he will have many more chances to go deeper in both of those tournaments in the future.
While he didn’t quite have the breakthrough at either of those tournaments that many might have expected or hoped, 2022 has been an outstanding year for Alcaraz, especially on clay.
Three of his four titles this year have come on clay, with wins in Rio, Barcelona, and Madrid (one of his two Masters titles this year, with Miami being the other).
With how well he has performed on clay this year, there’s no real reason to pick anyone else to win the tournament other than wanting to be a contrarian.
The betting value on backing him to win the tournament isn’t great, wherever you look. He also comes in at -150 at both BetRivers & BetMGM, while PointsBet has him at -160 to capture his fourth clay crown of the campaign.
So, proceed with caution and keep an eye on potential hedging opportunities later in the week. But based on what he has done on clay thus far this year and with no equals or superiors in the draw, it will be a surprise if anyone other than Alcaraz is the last man standing in Hamburg.
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